What do political operatives think about an Oprah run for president?

2025-04-27 05:17:08admin

President Oprah Winfrey. That's all the internet could shout last night, it seemed. But in the cold light of day, is that actually what we want?

After Oprah accepted the Cecil B. DeMille award at the Golden Globes for "outstanding contributions to the world of entertainment," she gave a barn burner of a speech that had the crowd on its feet applauding. It was a sweeping speech that tackled the visibility of women and shed the light on underrepresented populations.

It also sounded a whole hell of a lot like a speech to kick off a presidential run.

SEE ALSO: Oprah's Golden Globes speech was the emotional call to action America needs

It may have brought tears to many eyes and tweets to many timelines, but political operatives and experts that have intimate knowledge of what it takes to mount a campaign still have many questions.

"What the heck does Oprah believe in?" Kenneth Pennington, the former digital director for Bernie Sanders' campaign said. "Does Oprah support Medicare for all? Does Oprah support an end to unjust foreign wars? Does Oprah support a massive redistribution of wealth from the monied elites to the bottom 98%? These are the questions that the media and voters should be asking."

"What the heck does Oprah believe in?"

Questions like these have been circling Oprah for well over a year as a nation speculates which celebrity would follow President Trump into seeking the top executive office.

To many, Oprah has been seen as a front runner for this role. She has the resources, the star power, the good will, and long-running vocal support for social justice.

Back in March of 2017, Oprah spoke with Bloomberg's David Rubenstein and seemed to imply that Trump's success made her mull over the possibility of running for president. Then, in September, she praised New York Post's John Podhoretz for calling her "Democrats' best hope in 2020."

But hold your horses there, bucko. Because she's also sworn as recently as last July on a podcast with the Hollywood Reporter, that she won't run for office.

It's a shame, because she's pretty popular.

Q Scores, an analytical firm which measures the impact brands and celebrities has on consumers, most recently looked at Oprah's reach in September 2017.

"She has an 86 percent awareness rating, which is a huge number," Executive Vice President Henry Schafer said of the amount of American people familiar with Oprah. "The average celebrity has around a 36 percent awareness rating. It kind of peaked with her talk show and it's been holding steady ever since."

Awareness is one thing (it's no surprise that many people know her name after all these years), but people also generally like her.

"She currently has a 23 percent positive Q Score, which is still pretty strong," he said, comparing it to the average of 17 percent for other celebrities.

"The older you get, the more you like her."

Not only that, but positive vibes towards Oprah get stronger as people age -- even across genders.

"The older the female, the stronger the appeal," Schafer said. "And the same with men. The older you get, the more you like her."

Mashable Top Stories Stay connected with the hottest stories of the day and the latest entertainment news. Sign up for Mashable's Top Stories newsletter By clicking Sign Me Up, you confirm you are 16+ and agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Thanks for signing up!

That has interesting implications for a hypothetical Trump v. Oprah election cycle. In the 2016 election, Trump won the majority of voters aged 40 and up.

Since Q Scores doesn't measure the consumer impact of politicians, the last time that the firm measured Donald Trump was in January 2015. He had a 78 percent awareness rating (below her 86 percent), and a positivity rating of only 7 percent.

SEE ALSO: There's a must-watch documentary about Recy Taylor, the woman Oprah shouted out in Globes speech

In many ways, Oprah's measurements are probably what you'd expect. She skewed favorably towards urban dwellers, white collar professionals, African Americans, suburbanites, and those with higher education. If you think that sounds kind of like the opposite of Donald Trump, you're right.

"Her profile is diametrically opposed to Trump," Schafer said. "At least for now."

These Q Score measurements are backed up by polling. Last March, Public Policy Polling conducted research that showed Oprah would fare well against a electoral bout with Trump. Their results showed that "Oprah Winfrey has a 49 percent for 33 percent against favorability rating nationally and would lead Donald Trump 47-40 in a hypothetical 2020 Presidential contest."

But it (hopefully) takes more than popularity to become president.

Tweet may have been deleted

Speculation can go back and forth about what fundraising tactics she would marshal and who would be her running mate, but everyone we talked to seemed focused on strategy.

"The biggest thing is let Oprah be who she is. Let her be loud. Let her be over the top. Especially with middle class women, it will light them on fire," Republican media consultant Rory McShane said.

He saw two paths of victory for Oprah.

"She can either soften her image to make her more palatable to suburban folks," he said, pointing out that she would hypothetically then have to fight with Trump for those voters. "Or she can take the Bernie Sanders route, the Elizabeth Warren route, and focus on minorities. There, all she has to do is galvanize that base of people, and she wouldn't have to fight Trump over it."

But that doesn't mean she is bulletproof. She has plenty of perceived flaws that could be exploited.

"An Oprah campaign weakness would be her decades of inspirational speaking in the self-help realm" Pennington said. "They know that the institutions and systems of this country are stacked against them, and they want to hear from candidates about how they’ll address systemic corruption and injustice. Let me be clear -- Oprah or any other candidate can address these problems. But if you’ve been in the public light for decades and have yet to make that a central part of your communications, it’s harder."

Additionally, some see her as a bit of a polarizing figure; when Schafer spoke about her Q Score, he said she tends to "stir the pot." For her to potentially succeed, the experts we talked to spoke about how she would need a united message to get the votes. And for someone that American's tend to love, there's already a large amount of antagonism out there towards her.

Tweet may have been deleted

"I happen to believe that most votes can be earned if you can figure out a way to appeal to the specific issues they’re passionate about," Kevin Bingle, an Ohio-based, Republican political digital consultant who managed digital operations for Gov. John Kasich’s presidential campaign said. "There aren’t a lot of single-issue voters other than the fringes of both parties, so it’s very difficult to weave together a message or platform that appeals to one chunk of voters without losing others."

Pennington doubted how much someone so wealthy really couldprovide a uniting message for America.

SEE ALSO: Jimmy Kimmel is all about Oprah in 2020

"I think voters want a candidate in 2020 who will finally stand up to a political establishment that has not served their interests...," he said. "There’s some understandable appeal to celebrity candidates -- this idea that they’re not already part of a failed corrupt political establishment. But I personally find it hard to believe they will really stand up and do what’s right when the time comes. When you spend so much of your life as a rich and famous person, you start to only see a certain perspective. It becomes very difficult to understand or remember what life is like for regular people."

"For better or worse, there's no question that Donald Trump was the real deal. There's no question that he was relatable. Oprah may have that same appeal for the Democrats as well."

One thing that everyone agreed on was how little Oprah's celebrity would hurt her and the advantages it would immediately open up. Trump paved the path and, with the right candidate, history could be repeated.

"Really the [celebrity candidate] model isn't new," McShane said, pointing to Arnold Schwarzenegger's gubernatorial victory. "When you're a celebrity who runs for president, you automatically clear the first hurdle: people give a shit about what you say."

Even a lack of experience is no longer a barrier to entry. Oprah said that herself during the interview with David Rubenstein. What was once a closed door of access, now seems slightly more ajar, if you have the popularity and the money to get your foot in.

SEE ALSO: President Oprah? Here's what she needs to consider before she runs

"I think it helps in the sense that there is now evidence that there is a pathway regardless of government experience," Bingle said. "President Trump proudly championed that he had no experience in government, which would have normally been a disqualifier for the old-GOP... [Running for president] also requires the ability to raise money or invest in ones own campaign. Trump avoided this due to the tremendous amount of free media attention he got during the campaign. Will the media to that again for another celebrity candidate? We’d have to see."

And the biggest strength that Oprah has, at least to McShane, is how she has connected with audiences and individuals time and time again for many years.

"I think that Hillary Clinton's biggest problem was that she had no populist appeal," McShane said. "For better or worse, there's no question that Donald Trump was the real deal. There's no question that he was relatable. Oprah may have that same appeal for the Democrats as well."

While an Oprah candidacy is still a doubtful proposition, her longtime partner Stedman Graham tossed a lit match on the gasoline of her speech last night when he said if she wanted to run, "She would absolutely do it."

It'll probably be a while before we receive a definitive answer on this. So, in the meantime, be comforted by the fact that there's always a tweet: